Impact of the COVID-19 and War Migration on HIV/AIDS Epidemiology in Poland

Objectives: This study analyzed trends in HIV/AIDS in Poland over the time period of 2009-2021 and the potential impact of COVID-19 and the migration of war refugees from Ukraine. Methods: Long-term trends were assessed by joinpoint regression using data from Polish HIV/AIDS registries. The HIV/AIDS burden was also compared before and during the pandemic and refugee migration. Results: In 2009-2021, the upward tendency in the rate of new HIV infections until 2017 and decrease after 2017 was accompanied by a downward trend in new HIV/AIDS diagnoses and mortality. From the pandemic's beginning until March 2022, rates of new HIV/AIDS diagnoses dramatically decreased to later increase to pre-pandemic levels, which partially coincided with the wave of migration of refugees from Ukraine. Conclusions: Long-term analysis of HIV/AIDS in Poland showed a downward trend in new HIV/AIDS diagnoses and related mortality in 2009-2021. While the pandemic has reduced the number of detected HIV/AIDS cases, a subsequent increase in new HIV diagnoses in 2022 may be related to lifting the COVID-19 restrictions and war refugees' migration. These observations have implications for the WHO European Region, seeking to end AIDS as a public health problem by 2030.