Between Decentralization and Asymmetry: Explaining Preferences toward the Division of Power in Canada

In most federations, the division of power between central and subnational governments represents an important cleavage dividing voters and structuring party systems. Yet we lack a robust body of research regarding individuals' preferences for different forms of devolved decision-making such as decentralization and asymmetrical federalism. This article contributes to this research agenda by analyzing the effects of identity and grievances on public opinion toward the division of powers in Canada. Leveraging four waves of the Confederation of Tomorrow survey, we find that respondents who identify predominantly with their province are more likely to prefer decentralization and asymmetrical federalism, whereas those who hold grievances against the federation prefer decentralization. Studying provincial variations in the impact of our main variables, we point to the role of the political context by showing that in certain provinces, the political mobilization of grievances strengthens the relationship between provincial identity and support for decentralization.