Dynamics of autonomous and nonautonomous Leslie-Gower model for the impacts of fear and its carry-over effects including predator harvesting

Recently, certain biological field experiments and research findings have revealed that predators not only reduce prey populations through direct predation (lethal effect) but also indirectly affect the growth rate of prey by inducing fear; these nonlethal effects can be carried over seasons or generations. In this paper, we proposed an autonomous and a nonautonomous Leslie-Gower model incorporating some biological factors such as fear and its carry-over effects, prey refuge, and nonlinear predator harvesting. In the autonomous model, first, we examined the well-posedness, positivity solutions, and their boundedness. Also, it is shown that new equilibrium points emerge and disappear with the change in intrinsic growth rate of predator. Further, we compute and analyzed the local and global stability at the interior equilibrium points. Furthermore, Hopf bifurcation and direction and stability of limit cycle at interior equilibrium points are established. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis of the biological parameters is carried out numerically with two statistical methods via Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients. It was found that at the small values of fear factor, carry-over effect, and refuge behavior of prey parameters, the autonomous system exhibits oscillatory behavior, whereas for small values of prey birth rate and harvesting effort, the system remains stable. However, when intrinsic growth rate of predator increases from a low value to a higher value, the system shows transition from stability to instability and back to stability. We also explore the effects of seasonal variations in biological parameters in the nonautonomous model. Additionally, we investigate the theoretical existence of positive periodic solutions using the continuation theorem. The influences of seasonal variations in some parameters such as prey's birth rate, fear, and its carry-over effects; refuge behavior of prey; intrinsic growth rate of predator; and harvesting effort are then numerically investigated. The results reveal the emergence of positive periodic solutions and bursting patterns in the seasonally forced model.