Exploring Fault Geometry and Holocene Deformation of the Littoral Fault Zone within the Seismic Gap South of Greater Bay Area, China

Over the past 424 years, the Littoral Fault Zone (LFZ), located offshore of the South China coast, has experienced four destructive earthquakes (M >= 7). These events have resulted in an approximately 700 km seismic gap centered on the Greater Bay Area of China, home to over 70 million people. Despite previous studies on deeper crustal structures and geodynamic processes, the shallow structural architecture and recent tectonic activity of the LFZ within the seismic gap remain poorly understood due to limited offshore geophysical investigations. Here, we present new offshore geophysical data to explore the shallow crustal architecture and Holocene activity of the LFZ within this seismic gap. Multichannel seismic data reveal that the LFZ comprises a high-angle listric main normal fault along with several secondary normal faults. The main fault trends northeast and dips southeast in the shallow crustal architecture, serving as the basin-controlling fault in the north of the Pearl River Mouth Basin, with accumulated displacements ranging from 1.5 to 1.8 km. Furthermore, analysis of single-channel seismic data, and C-14 dating results from the borehole, indicate that the most recent movement of the main fault occurred within the last similar to 10,000 years, with minimum vertical offsets of 1.2 m. Based on these findings, we emphasize the LFZ's potential to generate a significant earthquake, estimated at M-w 7.0-7.5, within the inferred seismic gap. Our study highlights the potential earthquake hazard posed by the LFZ to the Greater Bay Area of China, while also providing valuable insights for the assessment of active submarine faults worldwide.