Enhancing intracranial efficacy prediction of osimertinib in non-small cell lung cancer: a novel approach through brain MRI radiomics

Introduction Osimertinib, a third-generation EGFR-TKI, is known for its high efficacy against brain metastases (BM) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) due to its ability to penetrate the blood-brain barrier. This study aims to evaluate the use of brain MRI radiomics in predicting the intracranial efficacy to osimertinib in NSCLC patients with BM. Materials and methods This study analyzed 115 brain metastases from NSCLC patients with the EGFR-T790M mutation treated with second-line osimertinib. The primary endpoint was intracranial response, and the secondary endpoint was intracranial progression-free survival (iPFS). We performed tumor delineation, image preprocessing, and radiomics feature extraction. Using a 5-fold cross-validation strategy, we built radiomic models with eight feature selectors and eight machine learning classifiers. The models' performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. Results The dataset of 115 brain metastases was divided into training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. The radiomic model utilizing the mRMR feature selector and stepwise logistic regression classifier showed the highest predictive accuracy, with AUCs of 0.879 for the training cohort and 0.786 for the validation cohort. This model outperformed a clinical-MRI morphological model, which included age, ring enhancement, and peritumoral edema (AUC: 0.794 for the training cohort and 0.697 for the validation cohort). The radiomic model also showed strong performance in calibration and decision curve analyses. Using a radiomic-score threshold of 199, patients were classified into two groups with significantly different median iPFS (3.0 months vs. 15.4 months, p < 0.001). Conclusion This study demonstrates that MRI radiomics can effectively predict the intracranial efficacy of osimertinib in NSCLC patients with brain metastases. This approach holds promise for assisting clinicians in personalizing treatment strategies.