Application of the Reconstructed Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence by Machine Learning in Agricultural Drought Monitoring of Henan Province, China from 2010 to 2022

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) serves as a proxy indicator for vegetation photosynthesis and can directly reflect the growth status of vegetation. Using SIF for drought monitoring offers greater potential compared to traditional vegetation indices. This study aims to develop and validate a novel approach, the improved Temperature Fluorescence Dryness Index (iTFDI), for more accurate drought monitoring in Henan Province, China. However, the low spatial resolution, data dispersion, and short temporal sequence of SIF data hinder its direct application in drought studies. To overcome these challenges, this study constructs a random forest SIF downscaling model based on the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument SIF (TROPOSIF) and the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Assuming an unchanging spatial scale relationship, an improved SIF (iSIF) product with a temporal resolution of 500 m over the period March to September, 2010-2022 was obtained for Henan Province. Subsequently, using the retrieved iSIF and the surface temperature difference data, the iTFDI was proposed, based on the assumption that under the same vegetation cover conditions, lower soil moisture and a greater diurnal temperature range of the surface indicate more severe drought. Results showed that: (1) The accuracy of the TROPOSIF downscaling model achieved coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) values of 0.847, 0.073 mW m-2 nm-1 sr-1, and 0.096 mW m-2 nm-1 sr-1, respectively. (2) The 2022 iTFDI drought monitoring results indicated favorable soil moisture in Henan Province during March, April, July, and August, while extensive droughts occurred in May, June, and September, accounting for 70.27%, 71.49%, and 43.61%, respectively. The monitored results were consistent with the regional water conditions measured at ground stations. (3) The correlation between the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and iTFDI at five stations was significantly stronger than the correlation with the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI), with the values -0.631, -0.565, -0.612, -0.653, and -0.453, respectively. (4) The annual Sen's slope and Mann-Kendall significance test revealed a significant decreasing trend in drought severity in the southern and western regions of Henan Province (6.74% of the total area), while the eastern region showed a significant increasing trend (4.69% of the total area). These results demonstrate that the iTFDI offers a significant advantage over traditional indices, providing a more accurate reflection of regional drought conditions. This enhances the ability to identify drought trends and supports the development of targeted drought management strategies. In conclusion, the iTFDI constructed using the downscaled iSIF data and surface temperature differential data shows great potential for drought monitoring.