Scenarios for New Mobility Policies and Automated Mobility in Beijing

In this study, we consider the introduction of new mobility services and technologies into the megacity of Beijing, China, as per developed strategy and action plans, in order to investigate their potential contribution to sustainable mobility. This includes population relocation (decentralization), the construction of new rail lines, the introduction of shared bike services as a feeder to subway stations, the electrification of passenger vehicles and the adoption of automated and shared vehicles. The well-established, system dynamics-based MARS model is adapted to Beijing and further improved via the inclusion of these new services, technologies and policies. We find that decentralization can have a profound effect on overall sustainability if not considered in conjunction with other policies and that new rail lines and shared bikes may only have benefits in specific zones. Shared and automated vehicles could increase VKT by 60% and reduce active and public transport trips by a quarter. As such, nuanced integrated policy approaches will be required that are similar to those currently in place, such as imposed car shedding and taxi fleet control.