Drivers and barriers to digital transformation in agriculture: An evolutionary game analysis based on the experience of China

CONTEXT: The digital transformation of agriculture is a complex and dynamic process involving numerous stakeholders. Inadequate participation and collaboration from stakeholders are major factors contributing to the difficulties in agricultural digital transformation. However, there is a paucity of research that dynamically uncovers the driving forces and obstacles of agricultural digitization from the perspective of stakeholders. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this article is to systematically analyze the drivers and obstacles faced by government incentives, digital technology service providers, and agricultural operators in participating in the digital transformation of agriculture. METHOD: This article employs evolutionary game theory to construct a model of the game between digital technology service providers and agricultural operators under the exogenous influence of the government. It also conducts stable strategy analysis and numerical simulation to explain and predict the behaviors and interaction mechanisms among multiple stakeholders in the digital transformation of agriculture. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis reveals four potential equilibrium points under specific conditions, identifying that the increase in returns and the opportunity costs of not participating in agricultural digital transformation are key driving factors. Critical barriers include the high costs faced by digital technology service providers and agricultural operators, as well as the associated risks of non-participation. Government incentives emerge as a crucial exogenous factor in promoting agricultural digital transformation. To better facilitate this process, we propose policy recommendations and management insights. SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides a new research perspective and methodology for agricultural digital transformation, offering a more comprehensive reflection of the complexity and multidimensionality of the driving and barrier factors influencing this process. It also provides theoretical support for explaining phenomena such as irrational behavior, multiple equilibria, and path dependence that exist in agricultural digital transformation.