Evolution of global water footprints of crop production in 1990-2019

Crop production has the largest water footprint (WF) of all economic sectors and ranks as a leading cause of water scarcity. Despite this, our understanding of historical changes in global WFs of crops remains limited. In this study, we analyse the recently published dataset on green and blue WFs of 175 individual crops in 1990-2019. We explore the main changes in unit WFs (expressed in m3t-1 yr-1) and WFs of production (m3 yr-1) and connect the observed changes to various physical and socio-economic drivers. We find that nearly 80% of crops reduced global average unit WFs (required less water per tonne) as crop yields improved and cultivation centred around more productive areas. However, the total WF of crop production increased by 30% as these productivity gains were insufficient to compensate for cropland expansion of mostly water-intensive crops. Close to 90% of the increase occurred between 2000-2019 likely driven by accelerated economic growth, globalisation, changing diets, and production of first-generation biofuels. Among crops, we observe the largest increases for oil palm fruit, soya beans, and maize as they became the main providers of crop-based nutrients, animal feed, and biofuels for the modern economy. Among regions, most of the increase occurred across the tropics, mainly in Indonesia, Brazil, and Nigeria. However, India, China, and the USA had the largest WFs of production over the study period. Humanity consumed 6.8 trillion m3 of water (87.1% green) to produce crops in 2019. This number is likely to increase in the future which may exacerbate already existing environmental and socio-economic issues. Thus, it is important to transition to more water-sustainable agrifood systems. Much potential still exists in increasing crop water productivity, shifting production to less water-scarce geographies, and rethinking our dietary and industrial consumption patterns.