How does new urbanization affect urban carbon emissions? Evidence based on spatial spillover effects and mechanism tests

Facilitating a balanced relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions is pivotal for achieving sustainable urban growth and regional coordination. However, the underlying correlation between new urbanization (NUL) and urban carbon emissions (UCE) remains ambiguous and is not well understood. On the basis of balanced panel data from 2006 to 2019 for 259 cities in China, this study constructed an indicator system to measure NUL in multiple dimensions and analyze the impact of NUL on UCE. The analysis primarily employs spatial econometric models with fixed effects for cities and years. The findings indicate that during the research period, the overall level of NUL in the cities exhibited an upward trend, with evident spatial agglomeration characteristics. Locally. NUL showed notable energy-saving and emission-reducing effects, with a large spatial spillover effect of NUL in surrounding areas. The transmission mechanisms suggest that energy consumption, industrial upgrading, and green innovation effects are vital pathways through which NUL influences UCE. Notably, the carbon reduction effects of NUL also exhibit structural characteristics. Implementing rational environmental regulations and reducing resource dependence can strengthen the carbon mitigation effect of the NUL, which drivers promote. Our findings provide empirical evidence for China's advancement in the process of NUL and may facilitate achieving the "dual carbon" goals.