Temperature-mortality associations by age and cause: a multi-country multi-city study

被引：5

作者：

Scovronick, Noah ^{[1
]}

Sera, Francesco ^{[2
,3
]}

Vu, Bryan ^{[1
,4
]}

Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M. ^{[5
,6
]}

Roye, Dominic ^{[7
,8
]}

Tobias, Aurelio ^{[9
,10
]}

Seposo, Xerxes ^{[10
]}

Forsberg, Bertil ^{[11
]}

Guo, Yuming ^{[12
,13
]}

Li, Shanshan ^{[12
,13
]}

Honda, Yasushi ^{[14
]}

Abrutzky, Rosana ^{[15
]}

Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio ^{[16
]}

Saldiva, Paulo H. Nascimento ^{[17
]}

Lavigne, Eric ^{[18
,19
]}

Kan, Haidong ^{[20
]}

Osorio, Samuel ^{[21
]}

Kysely, Jan ^{[22
,23
]}

Urban, Ales ^{[22
,23
]}

Orru, Hans ^{[24
]}

Indermitte, Ene ^{[24
]}

Jaakkola, Jouni J. ^{[25
,26
,27
]}

Ryti, Niilo ^{[25
,26
,27
]}

Pascal, Mathilde ^{[28
]}

Katsouyanni, Klea ^{[29
,30
]}

Mayvaneh, Fatemeh ^{[31
]}

Entezari, Alireza ^{[13
,32
]}

Goodman, Patrick ^{[33
]}

Zeka, Ariana ^{[34
,35
]}

Michelozzi, Paola ^{[36
]}

de'Donato, Francesca ^{[36
]}

Hashizume, Masahiro ^{[37
]}

Alahmad, Barak ^{[4
]}

Zanobetti, Antonella ^{[4
]}

Schwartz, Joel ^{[4
]}

Diaz, Miguel Hurtado ^{[38
]}

Valencia, C. de la Cruz ^{[38
]}

Rao, Shilpa ^{[39
]}

Madureira, Joana ^{[40
,41
,42
]}

Acquaotta, Fiorella ^{[43
]}

Kim, Ho ^{[44
]}

Lee, Whanhee ^{[45
]}

Iniguez, Carmen ^{[8
,46
]}

Ragettli, Martina S. ^{[47
,48
]}

Guo, Yue L. ^{[49
,50
,51
]}

Dang, Tran Ngoc ^{[52
]}

Dung, Do V. ^{[52
]}

Armstrong, Benedict ^{[2
]}

Gasparrini, Antonio ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Emory Univ, Rollins Sch Publ Hlth, Gangarosa Dept Environm Hlth, 1518 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA

[2] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth Environm & Soc, Environm & Hlth Modelling EHM Lab, London, England

[3] Univ Florence, Dept Stat Comp Sci Applicat G Parenti, Florence, Italy

[4] Harvard Univ, Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Boston, MA USA

[5] Univ Bern, Inst Social & Prevent Med, Bern, Switzerland

[6] Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland

[7] Climate Res Fdn FIC, Madrid, Spain

[8] CIBER Epidemiol & Salud Publ CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain

[9] Spanish Council Sci Res, Inst Environm Assessment & Water Res, Barcelona, Spain

[10] Nagasaki Univ, Sch Trop Med & Global Hlth, Nagasaki, Japan

[11] Umea Univ, Dept Publ Hlth & Clin Med, Umea, Sweden

[12] Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Australia

[13] Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Climate Air Qual Res Unit, Melbourne, Australia

[14] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Climate Change Adaptat, Tsukuba, Japan

[15] Univ Buenos Aires, Fac Ciencias Sociales, Inst Invest Gino Germani, Buenos Aires, Argentina

[16] Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Med, Dept Pathol, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[17] INSPER, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[18] Univ Ottawa, Fac Med, Sch Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, Ottawa, ON, Canada

[19] Hlth Canada, Environm Hlth Sci & Res Bur, Ottawa, ON, Canada

[20] Fudan Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Shanghai, Peoples R China

[21] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Environm Hlth, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[22] Czech Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Prague, Czech Republic

[23] Czech Univ Life Sci, Fac Environm Sci, Prague, Czech Republic

[24] Univ Tartu, Inst Family Med & Publ Hlth, Tartu, Estonia

[25] Univ Oulu, Ctr Environm & Resp Hlth Res CERH, Oulu, Finland

[26] Oulu Univ Hosp, Med Res Ctr Oulu MRC Oulu, Oulu, Finland

[27] Univ Oulu, Oulu, Finland

[28] French Natl Publ Hlth Agcy, Sante Publ France, Dept Environm & Occupat Hlth, St Maurice, France

[29] Natl & Kapodistrian Univ Athens, Dept Hyg Epidemiol & Med Stat, Athens, Greece

[30] Kings Coll London, Sch Populat Hlth & Environm Sci, London, England

[31] Univ Munster, Inst Landscape Ecol, Climatol Res Grp, Munster, Germany

[32] Hakim Sabzevari Univ, Fac Geog & Environm Sci, Sabzevar, Khorasan Razavi, Iran

[33] Technol Univ Dublin, Dublin, Ireland

[34] UCL, Inst Global Hlth, London, England

[35] Brunel Univ London, Coll Hlth Med & Life Sci, London, England

[36] Lazio Reg Hlth Serv, Dept Epidemiol, Rome, Italy

[37] Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Med, Dept Global Hlth Policy, Tokyo, Japan

[38] Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico

[39] Norwegian Inst Publ Hlth, Oslo, Norway

[40] Inst Nacl Saude Dr Ricardo Jorge, Dept Environm Hlth, Porto, Portugal

[41] Univ Porto, EPIUnit, Inst Saude Publ, Porto, Portugal

[42] Lab Invest Integrat & Translac Saude Populac ITR, Porto, Portugal

[43] Univ Torino, Dept Earth Sci, Turin, Italy

[44] Seoul Natl Univ, Grad Sch Publ Hlth, Seoul, South Korea

[45] Pusan Natl Univ, Coll Informat & Biomed Engn, Sch Biomed Convergence Engn, Yangsan, South Korea

[46] Univ Valencia, Dept Stat & Computat Res, Valencia, Spain

[47] Swiss Trop & Publ Hlth Inst, Allschwil, Switzerland

[48] Univ Basel, Basel, Switzerland

[49] Natl Taiwan Univ NTU, Coll Med, Environm & Occupat Med, Taipei, Taiwan

[50] NTU Hosp, Taipei, Taiwan

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY | 2024年 / 8卷 / 05期

基金：

瑞士国家科学基金会; 美国国家卫生研究院;

关键词：

HEAT-RELATED MORTALITY; AMBIENT-TEMPERATURE; HEALTH; COLD; WEATHER; IMPACT; VULNERABILITY; STRESS; BURDEN; WAVES;

D O I：

10.1097/EE9.0000000000000336

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Background:Heterogeneity in temperature-mortality relationships across locations may partly result from differences in the demographic structure of populations and their cause-specific vulnerabilities. Here we conduct the largest epidemiological study to date on the association between ambient temperature and mortality by age and cause using data from 532 cities in 33 countries.Methods:We collected daily temperature and mortality data from each country. Mortality data was provided as daily death counts within age groups from all, cardiovascular, respiratory, or noncardiorespiratory causes. We first fit quasi-Poisson regression models to estimate location-specific associations for each age-by-cause group. For each cause, we then pooled location-specific results in a dose-response multivariate meta-regression model that enabled us to estimate overall temperature-mortality curves at any age. The age analysis was limited to adults.Results:We observed high temperature effects on mortality from both cardiovascular and respiratory causes compared to noncardiorespiratory causes, with the highest cold-related risks from cardiovascular causes and the highest heat-related risks from respiratory causes. Risks generally increased with age, a pattern most consistent for cold and for nonrespiratory causes. For every cause group, risks at both temperature extremes were strongest at the oldest age (age 85 years). Excess mortality fractions were highest for cold at the oldest ages.Conclusions:There is a differential pattern of risk associated with heat and cold by cause and age; cardiorespiratory causes show stronger effects than noncardiorespiratory causes, and older adults have higher risks than younger adults.

引用

页数：7

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