When reality knocks on the door. The effect of conspiracy beliefs on COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and the moderating role of experience with the virus

Rationale: Prior research suggests that belief in conspiracy theories can reduce the willingness of individuals to get vaccinated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Examining factors that may moderate this negative effect is an important area of research. Objectives: The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between vaccine uptake and two types of conspiracy beliefs (COVID-19 and vaccine-related) and the moderating role of direct and indirect experiences with the coronavirus. Methods: We draw on nationally representative survey data collected in Hungary in January 2022 (N=1000, 47% male, 53% female; mean age 49.6 years). Structural equation models and multi-group analysis were performed. Results: Conspiracy beliefs were strongly associated with vaccine uptake, however, both direct and indirect experiences with the virus moderated the effect of conspiracy beliefs. Individuals who experienced a serious infection or reported a close person being infected by the virus developed severe symptoms or even died were less likely to take conspiracy theories seriously when deciding about their own vaccination. In two out of the four tested moderation effects, a negative experience with the virus reduced the negative effect of conspiracy beliefs. Discussion: Our findings demonstrate that personal or close real-life experience with severe COVID-19 infection can significantly mitigate the impact of conspiracy beliefs on vaccine hesitancy, highlighting the importance of real-life evidence in overcoming misinformation and increasing vaccine uptake. Nevertheless, it is important to mention that our results are preliminary, and future studies need to replicate the findings and test their robustness.