Defense Power Dynamics in Southeast Asia: Analysis of Submarine Capabilities in Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore

The post-Cold War era in Southeast Asia has witnessed an exponential rise in submarine proliferation, resulting in a notable surge in the count of regional submarine operators. This trend prompts the following inquiries: Why submarines being acquired by Southeast Asian powers, what is the acquisition process like, and what implications will these endeavors have? This study undertook a comparative analysis of the submarine procurement cases in Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore, examining official statements from government and defense authorities. The findings suggest that Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore were likely driven by deterrence and enforcement considerations, while Vietnam's acquisition was primarily motivated by deterrence against China. These insights are highly significant as they highlight the importance for mitigating regional submarine-related risks, such as undersea conflict or accidents, by either diminishing threat perceptions among ASEAN states or exploring effective approaches to undersea domain enforcement.