Transitioning to Peace in Northern Ireland: Before and After the Belfast-Good Friday Agreement 1998

The 1998 Belfast-Good Friday Agreement (GFA), credited with bringing peace to Northern Ireland, has celebrated its 25-year anniversary. The key research question in this paper is how have the changes made under the GFA impacted on the nature of terrorism in Northern Ireland? To address this question, we examine terrorist attacks before and after the Agreement using statistics from the Global Terrorism Database. The research finds: a significant reduction in both Republican and Loyalist terrorism but a residual of groups, particularly republican splinter organisations, intent on continuing their campaign of violence. Post GFA, in relative terms, there is an increase in attacks against private persons and property and a decrease in attacks against the military. Terrorists are now more likely to use explosives than firearms but with a reduced predicted likelihood of success. The Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) has responded with attempts to normalise policing. Consolidating peace goes well beyond the realms of policing and involves tackling the wider issues of power sharing politics, socio-economic inequalities, and societal divisiveness.