Establishment and Application of an Interplanetary Disturbance Index Based on the Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Energy Coupling Function and the Spectral Whitening Method

We develop a preliminary interplanetary disturbance index (J sW ) by applying the spectral whitening method to an energy coupling function with solar wind measurements during the years 1998-2014 as the input, which can be used as an indicator of perturbations in the near-Earth solar wind. The correlation and temporal variation between J sW and the geomagnetic disturbance index (J pG ) constructed from the same method have been analyzed in detail for 167 geomagnetic storms with the minimum D st index less than or equal to -50 nT. The time delay between J sW and J pG is clearly observable and varies for different events, according to which J sW is shifted backward with respect to J pG . We obtain a fairly good negative correlation between the shifted J sW and the J pG indices for the majority of events, and the significance level for 88% of the events (i.e., 147 events) does not exceed 0.05. A statistical analysis of the shifted J sW and the J pG indices for 147 selected events reveals that larger values of J sW and smaller magnitudes of J pG are commonly accompanied by enhanced southward magnetic fields, which implies that more solar wind energy is entering the magnetosphere and thus causing strong geomagnetic storms. Furthermore, a linear fit of the two indices suggests that the evolution of J pG can be predicted about 2 hr in advance based on J sW , indicating that J sW can provide early warnings of possible disturbances in the geomagnetic fields, which is crucial for space weather monitoring and operational forecasting.