Credences for strict conditionals

被引:0
作者
Willer, Malte [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Chicago, Chicago, IL USA
关键词
TRUTH-CONDITIONS; PROBABILITIES; SEMANTICS; UPDATE; IF;
D O I
10.1111/phpr.13085
中图分类号
B [哲学、宗教];
学科分类号
01 ; 0101 ;
摘要
Less-than-certain conditional judgments pose notorious problems for strict analyses of conditionals: across their various incarnations, these analyses have trouble making sense of how conditionals could have non-trivial probabilities in the first place; minimal constraints on how such probabilities are to be assigned, moreover, lead to results that seem at odds with a strict outlook on the semantics of conditionals, most notably the validity of Conditional Excluded Middle. I demonstrate that a strict analysis can overcome the trouble if couched in a bilateral dynamic setting that properly extends the familiar Ramsey test for accepting conditionals to other iffy attitudes, most importantly the one of rejecting a conditional. The resulting framework accommodates the appeal of Stalnaker's thesis as well as of Conditional Excluded Middle in a strict setting. A discussion of how to handle the probability of epistemically modalized conditionals and of compounds of conditionals is provided.
引用
收藏
页码:23 / 50
页数:28
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