Assessment of bank risk exposure considering climate transition risks

被引：0

作者：

Ge, Zekun ^{[1
]}

Liu, Qian ^{[2
]}

Wei, Zi ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Cent Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Econ, Beijing 100039, Peoples R China

[2] Cent Univ Finance & Econ, Inst Finance & Econ, Beijing 100039, Peoples R China

[3] Cent Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Accounting, Beijing 100039, Peoples R China

来源：

FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS | 2024年 / 67卷

关键词：

Climate transition risks; Carbon price; Bank risk exposure; Probability of default; Merton model;

D O I：

10.1016/j.frl.2024.105903

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

This study utilizes the Merton model to assess how the climate transition risk exposure of banks may be affected by transition risk shocks across a 30-year horizon, considering three representative climate scenarios outlined by the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). The calculation results show that the rise in carbon prices will increase corporate costs and reduce operating profits, thereby increasing the probability of corporate default and ultimately raising the overall level of banks' credit risk exposure, with utilities and energy sectors being the most affected. Variations in loan distributions result in different transition risk impacts across bank types, with large state-owned banks having higher exposure due to loans in carbon-intensive sectors.

引用

页数：6