Simulating the changes of the habitats suitability of chub mackerel ( Scomber japonicus) ) in the high seas of the North Pacific Ocean using ensemble models under medium to long-term future climate scenarios

被引：2

作者：

Sun, Yuyan ^{[1
,2
,3
,4
]}

Zhang, Heng ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Jiang, Keji ^{[1
,2
,3
,4
]}

Xiang, Delong ^{[1
,2
,3
,4
]}

Shi, Yongchuang ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Huang, Sisi ^{[1
,2
,3
,4
]}

Li, Yang ^{[1
,2
,3
,5
]}

Han, Haibin ^{[1
,2
,3
,4
]}

机构：

[1] Minist Agr & Rural Affairs, Key Lab Ocean & Polar Fisheries, Shanghai 200090, Peoples R China

[2] Chinese Acad Fishery Sci, East China Sea Fisheries Res Inst, Shanghai 200090, Peoples R China

[3] Qingdao Marine Sci & Technol Ctr, Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China

[4] Shanghai Ocean Univ, Coll Marine Living Resource Sci & Management, Shanghai, Peoples R China

[5] Dalian Ocean Univ, Coll Nav & Ship Engn, Dalian 116023, Liaoning, Peoples R China

来源：

MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN | 2024年 / 207卷

关键词：

Chub mackerel; Species distribution models (SDMs); Ensemble model; Climate change; Habitat suitability; PERFORMANCE; PATTERNS; SHIFTS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.116873

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Understanding and forecasting changes in marine habitats due to global climate warming is crucial for sustainable fisheries. Using future environmental data provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs) and occurrence records of Chub mackerel in the North Pacific Ocean (2014-2023), we built eight individual models and four ensemble models to simulate current habitat distribution and forecast changes under three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for the 2050s and 2100s. Ensemble models outperformed individual ones, with the weighted average algorithm model achieving the highest accuracy (AUC 0.994, TSS 0.929). Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chla) significantly influenced habitat distribution. Predictions indicate current high suitability areas for Chub mackerel are concentrated beyond the 200-nautical-mile baseline. Under future climate scenarios, habitat suitability is expected to decline, with a shift towards higher latitudes and deeper waters. High suitability areas will be significantly reduced.

引用

页数：12