Parsing Negative and Positive Recency Biases in Terms of Top-Down and Bottom-Up Processing

We suggest a productive categorization of positive and negative recency biases - such as the gambler's fallacy and the hot hand fallacies - in terms of bottom-up and top-down processes. In this manner, the biases may be treated similarly to perceptual illusions. We provide a brief review of this framework, and in two experiments suggest a novel methodology that utilizes a nonbinary outcome design. In Experiment 1, we showed that a negative recency belief can generate either a positive or negative recency behavioral bias. In Experiment 2, we performed a more granular examination of bottom-up processes that might underpin probability judgments by manipulating reward variance and a sequence window, showing a list of recent winning positions First, we found that the gain/loss variance and the size of the sequence window affected the frequency of subjects showing either positive or negative recency biases. Second, we found a main effect of sequence window on a subject's positive recency bias after streaks of either rewards or outcomes. Finally, we found data qualitatively supporting an inverse spatial proximity bias for subjects displaying behavior consistent with a negative recency bias.