China's ' s onshore wind energy potential in the context of climate change

被引:14
作者
Ji, Ling [1 ]
Li, Jiahui [1 ]
Sun, Lijian [2 ]
Wang, Shuai [3 ]
Guo, Junhong [4 ]
Xie, Yulei [5 ]
Wang, Xander [6 ]
机构
[1] Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China
[2] Chinese Acad Surveying & Mapping, Beijing 100830, Peoples R China
[3] Goldwind Sci & Technol Co Ltd, Beijing 100176, Peoples R China
[4] North China Elect Power Univ, Coll Environm Sci & Engn, Beijing 510006, Peoples R China
[5] Guangdong Univ Technol, Inst Environm & Ecol Engn, Guangzhou 510006, Guangdong, Peoples R China
[6] Univ Prince Edward Isl, Sch Climate Change & Adaptat, Charlottetown, PE C1A 4P3, Canada
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
Wind energy; Climate change; Land suitability; Potential assessment; Spatial and temporal variability; POWER RESOURCE; IMPACTS; SOLAR; LOCATIONS; FARMS; COST;
D O I
10.1016/j.rser.2024.114778
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
China has great potential for developing renewable energy to achieve its carbon neutrality goals. Orderly development of renewable energy is essential to enhance resource utilization efficiency and ensure safety during the energy system transition process. This study presents a thorough assessment of China's onshore wind power potential by considering the land suitability, the potential and temporal characteristics, and the impacts of climate change. The high-resolution maps combining wind resources with land conditions and climate scenarios are produced to provide insights into system planning, grid integration, and flexibility management. The results show that the capacity potential of onshore wind energy in China is 9.6 TW with an annual generation of 12.6 PWh, and 83 % of total capacity has a cost advantage with the levelized cost lower than the 60 $/MWh threshold. By comprehensively considering geographical, economic, and social criteria, around 8.1 % of the national territorial area is identified as the most suitable area for wind power development, primarily in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. The annual electricity generation from these areas can fulfill nearly 69 % of the nation's electricity demand. Future climate change projections indicate a remarkable generalized drop by 18 % in the north and a slight increase by 7 % in the south under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, significant changes in wind resources are mostly within restricted areas, suggesting that future climate change would like to bring negative but limited impacts on wind power production in China.
引用
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页数:16
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