Waist circumference glucose, a novel and effective predictor of type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study

Introduction Waist circumference (WC) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) have been demonstrated as risk factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Evidence is limited regarding the association of the combination of WC and FPG (WyG) with the risk of T2DM. The primary aim of the study was to investigate the relationship between WyG and T2DM.Research design and methods The current study was a population-based cohort study using data from the NAGALA database. Participants were divided into tertiles based on WyG. Cox proportional hazard regression model was applied to identify the association of WyG with T2DM.Results During a median follow-up of 6.19 years in the normoglycemia group and 5.58 years in the prediabetes group, respectively, 88 and 285 individuals in the two groups received a diagnosis of T2DM. After full adjustment, risk of T2DM increased in step-wise fashion with increasing tertiles of WyG. For a per-SD increase in WyG, the hazard ratios for T2DM were 3.05 (95% CI 2.64 - 3.51) in all populations, 1.94 (95% CI 1.46 - 2.58) in the normoglycemia group and 1.63 (95% CI 1.40 - 1.90) in the prediabetes group. The interaction between WyG and fatty liver on T2DM was statistically significant in the prediabetes group (P for interaction = 0.034).Conclusions Elevated WyG was independently associated with incident T2DM in Japan. Baseline WyG help identify individuals at high risk of T2DM and implement effective preventive measures.