The effect of pilot climate-resilient city policies on urban climate resilience: Evidence from quasi-natural experiments

The climate-resilient city model is designed as a blueprint for urban development that aims to reduce climate risks and enhance climate resilience. This paper evaluates the implementation of pilot policies for climateresilient cities and establishes an in-depth evaluation index system to measure urban climate resilience effectively. By integrating insights from urban systems and management studies, this framework comprises aspects such as protection, recovery, adaptation, and organizational strength. Employing panel data that spans 286 cities at the prefectural level and above in China, from 2005 to 2021, our research utilizes a variety of quantitative methods. These include the kernel density method, quasi-experimental approaches such as Difference-inDifferences (DID) and Spatial Difference-in-Differences (SDID), K-means clustering, and dual machine learning (DML). Our objective is to thoroughly assess the effect of the climate-resilient city pilot (CRCP) policy across multiple facets, ranging from local and spatial considerations to overall and specific, as well as from static to dynamic perspectives. Our findings indicate a generally uneven progression in the climate resilience levels among the cities under study. The CRCP's introduction has markedly improved climate resilience in pilot cities, alongside significant spatial spillover effects. These diffusion and polarisation effects had positive and negative impacts on neighbouring non-pilot cities, respectively. In addition, the CRCP's effectiveness varies, indicating higher success rates in cities experiencing high temperatures and medium levels of rainfall, as well as in cities identified as "MMLL" types, which are particularly climate-sensitive and vulnerable. In addition, we emphasize the importance of upgrading infrastructure, especially in areas such as water supply and drainage, energy and gas provision, and logistics and transportation. These improvements are crucial strategies to enhance the effectiveness of the CRCP. In conclusion, our study offers critical insights for policymakers in China as well as international efforts, aiming to foster urban development that is inclusive, secure, resilient, and sustainable.