Load prediction and energy efficiency improvement of steelmaking waste heat centralized heating systems under mild climate in China

HVAC energy consumption accounts for more than 50 % of the total building energy consumption globally and using industrial waste heat has huge potential for energy savings in central heating systems. Under the background of the use of renewable energy and the gradual rise of central heating in mild climate areas in China, it is worth paying attention to the problem of excessive energy consumption caused by the inaccurate load prediction of central heating systems when the ambient temperature changes. L City, Guizhou Province, is the first city with central heating in southern China. The temperature variation during winter in L City can manifest the climatic characteristics of a mild region. Therefore, based on the operational data of the steel waste heat central heating system in L City, Guizhou Province, China, during the heating season of 2022-2023, this study discusses the load prediction and energy-saving optimization strategy of the central heating system in a mild climate. SketchUp was used to conduct 3D modeling of the actual buildings in the heating area and TRNSYS was imported to simulate the system load. The difference between the heating load forecast and the actual operating data was analyzed in detail by using the calculation results. Based on the simulation results, the waste heat utilization strategy was adjusted and the influence of different heating schemes on the pump energy consumption under different load demands was discussed. The results reveal that based on the temperature change rule, the accurate load prediction can lead to a 28.64 % saving of the system energy. Concerning system energy consumption, by adjusting the water flow and choosing the large and small pump system, the energy saving amounts to 39.48 % compared with the traditional single-pump system. Meanwhile, in the transition season when the heating demand is less than 20 MW, the adjusted heating scheme can achieve a 38.5 % saving based on the constant flow scheme and a 5.4 % saving based on the constant temperature difference scheme. This article provides a scientific energysaving solution for heating in mild climates using industrial waste heat, not only reducing energy consumption but also providing an important reference for the energy-saving renovation of heating systems in similar areas.