A probabilistic model for real-time quantification of building energy flexibility

被引:4
作者
Han, Binglong [1 ]
Li, Hangxin [1 ,2 ]
Wang, Shengwei [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Hong Kong Polytech Univ, Dept Bldg Environm & Energy Engn, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
[2] Hong Kong Polytech Univ, Res Inst Smart Energy, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
来源
ADVANCES IN APPLIED ENERGY | 2024年 / 15卷
关键词
Building energy flexibility; Probabilistic model; Computational efficiency; Uncertainty; Smart grid; DEMAND; SMART; SYSTEMS;
D O I
10.1016/j.adapen.2024.100186
中图分类号
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号
0807 ; 0820 ;
摘要
Buildings have great energy flexibility potential to manage supply-demand imbalance in power grids with high renewable penetration. Accurate and real-time quantification of building energy flexibility is essential not only for engaging buildings in electricity and grid service markets, but also for ensuring the reliable and optimal operation of power grids. This paper proposes a probabilistic model for rapidly quantifying the aggregated flexibility of buildings under uncertainties. An explicit equation is derived as the analytical solution of a commonly used second-order building thermodynamic model to quantify the flexibility of individual buildings, eliminating the need of time-consuming iterative and finite difference computations. A sampling-based uncertainty analysis is performed to obtain the distribution of aggregated building flexibility, considering major uncertainties comprehensively. Validation tests are conducted using 150 commercial buildings in Hong Kong. The results show that the proposed model not only quantifies the aggregated flexibility with high accuracy, but also dramatically reduces the computation time from 3605 s to 6.7 s, about 537 times faster than the existing probabilistic model solved numerically. Moreover, the proposed model is 8 times faster than the archetype-based model and achieves significantly higher accuracy.
引用
收藏
页数:9
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