State childcare provision in China: Subnational variations and localized policy contexts across 31 mainland provinces

The social organization of childcare is of special relevance to gender equality and family wellbeing. Childcare provision in China is often recognized as a case of familism, which highly relies on family care with limited state support. However, this all-encompassing view may mask the local discrepancy generated by a decentralized social welfare system, especially when emerging initiatives have been enacted due to the government's concern about fertility. This article analyses the variation of childcare policies across 31 China mainland provinces, from the perspective of welfare regime theory. Using hierarchical cluster analysis, six policy patterns with varying configurations of familizing and defamilizing support are identified: (1) dual-earner support, (2) moderate dual-earner support, (3) moderate support, (4) general family support, (5) modified family support, and (6) a geo-special case. We further explore the socioeconomic contexts of various policy profiles, with a particular focus on fertility and female employment. Findings suggest that, although with a nationally shared welfare ideology, subnational governments could exploit divergent strategies to support childcare in response to localized socioeconomic conditions. This research also provides insights into how childcare responsibilities are distributed between state and family in a non-western country.