CXCL10/IgG1 Axis in Multiple Sclerosis as a Potential Predictive Biomarker of Disease Activity

Background and Objectives Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a heterogeneous disease, and its course is difficult to predict. Prediction models can be established by measuring intrathecally synthesized proteins involved in inflammation, glial activation, and CNS injury. Methods To determine how these intrathecal proteins relate to the short-term, i.e., 12 months, disease activity in relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), we measured the intrathecal synthesis of 46 inflammatory mediators and 14 CNS injury or glial activation markers in matched serum and CSF samples from 47 patients with MS (pwMS), i.e., 23 RRMS and 24 clinically isolated syndrome (CIS), undergoing diagnostic lumbar puncture. Subsequently, all pwMS were followed for >= 12 months in a retrospective follow-up study and ultimately classified into "active", i.e., developing clinical and/or radiologic disease activity, n = 18) or "nonactive", i.e., not having disease activity, n = 29. Disease activity in patients with CIS corresponded to conversion to RRMS. Thus, patients with CIS were subclassified as "converters" or "nonconverters" based on their conversion status at the end of a 12-month follow-up. Twenty-seven patients with noninflammatory neurologic diseases were included as negative controls. Data were subjected to differential expression analysis and modeling techniques to define the connectivity arrangement (network) between neuroinflammation and CNS injury relevant to short-term disease activity in RRMS. Results Lower age and/or higher CXCL13 levels positively distinguished active/converting vs nonactive/nonconverting patients. Network analysis significantly improved the prediction of short-term disease activity because active/converting patients featured a stronger positive connection between IgG1 and CXCL10. Accordingly, analysis of disease activity-free survival demonstrated that pwMS, both RRMS and CIS, with a lower or negative IgG1-CXCL10 correlation, have a higher probability of activity-free survival than the patients with a significant correlation (p < 0.0001, HR >= 2.87). Discussion Findings indicate that a significant IgG1-CXCL10 positive correlation predicts the risk of short-term disease activity in patients with RRMS and CIS. Thus, the present results can be used to develop a predictive model for MS activity and conversion to RRMS.