Surat's sustainable future: analyzing compact urban development and population density trends

Rapid urbanization is a challenge for the cities of developing countries like India. The share of an urban area is rapidly increasing in dynamically growing cities. Due to this, the land use is altered, causing sprawl and unplanned development. The consumption of resources is greater, and the impact on the surroundings is negative. The compact city concept is always more efficient and cost effective compared to unplanned organic growth. The compact city optimise available land resources with its maximum possible capacity in accordance with other available natural resources. The primary study objective is to assess the growth trend of Surat city using satellite images, GIS techniques and census data for the last few years. The analysis considers population density for different city wards from 1991 to 2020. Based on the land use land cover change carried out using the maximum likelihood method from the satellite images, the rate of spreading out, its direction, and causes are also found. In this study, population density is a crucial attribute of the compact city concept. The study shows that wardwise density is increasing in a specific direction and making that portion of the city a dense, compact development. This is observed in ward numbers 48, 42 and 35 in the East, North and Southeast directions from CBD, respectively. The average population density in persons per sq. km. is continuously increasing from 5006 to 20329 at city level which also shows the compact city development for Surat. The governing authorities must incorporate the compact city concept into the planning policy for sustainable urban development. By this, policymakers can understand housing needs to promote affordable housing, invest in infrastructure development and public services and identify areas where sustainable transportation options, such as public transit, walking, or cycling, need improvement.