UNCERTAIN ANALYZE FOR CHINESE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

Uncertain statistics is known as a group of mathematical methods to collect, analyze, and interpret data utilizing uncertainty theory. By using uncertain regression analysis and uncertain time series analysis, Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) is modeled and forecasted. Following that, parameter estimation and residual analysis are proposed. Also, the uncertain hypothesis test is utilized to show whether the uncertain statistical models are suitable for the GDP data or not. Furthermore, the forecast values and confidence intervals are obtained. Moreover, the reason why stochastic regression analysis and stochastic time series analysis are unreasonable is that the residual sequence cannot pass some tests in probability theory. The analysis and prediction in this paper propose some theoretical support for the development of the national economy and the formulation of policy.