Developer sentiment, developer's strategy and housing supply: evidence from Hong Kong

被引:0
作者
Wang, Ziyou [1 ]
Hui, Eddie Chi-man [2 ,3 ]
Liang, Cong [4 ,5 ]
机构
[1] Univ Reading, Henley Business Sch, Reading, England
[2] Hong Kong Polytech Univ, Dept Bldg & Real Estate, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
[3] City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Publ & Int Affairs, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
[4] Open Univ Hong Kong, Lee Shau Kee Sch Business & Adm, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
[5] Lingnan Univ, Sch Grad Studies, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
关键词
developer sentiment; developer's strategy; housing supply; real-option analysis; Hong Kong; D21; O18; R31; INVESTOR SENTIMENT; MARKET SENTIMENT; FUNDAMENTALS; UNCERTAINTY; OPTIONS; LIMITS; MODEL; RISK;
D O I
10.1080/00343404.2024.2377675
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
The increasingly important role of sentiment in the housing market has complicated the challenges facing developers during boom-and-bust cycles. This study investigates how developer sentiment affects developers' decision-making and the housing supply at the project level. As the standard evaluation usually overlooks sentiment resulting in suboptimal inferences, we develop a new theoretical model that analyses both sentiment and developers' optimal strategies. Our findings suggest a 'U'-shape relationship between developer sentiment and the expected waiting time to develop. Second, the optimal development density declines when developer sentiment intensifies. The Hong Kong housing market is used as a case for empirical analysis.
引用
收藏
页数:20
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