A Novel Deep Learning Model for Student Performance Prediction Using Engagement Data

Technology-enhanced learning supported by virtual learning environments (VLEs) facilitates tutors and students. VLE platforms contain a wealth of information that can be used to mine insight regarding students' learning behaviour and relationships between behaviour and academic performance, as well as to model data-driven decision-making. This study introduces a system that we termed ASIST: a novel Attention-aware convolutional Stacked BiLSTM network for student representation learning to predict their performance. ASIST exploits student academic registry, VLE click stream, and midterm continuous assessment information for their behaviour representation learning. ASIST jointly learns the student representation using five behaviour vectors. It processes the four sequential behaviour vectors using a separate stacked bidirectional long short term memory (LSTM) network. A deep convolutional neural network models the diurnal weekly interaction behaviour. It also employs the attention mechanism to assign weight to features based on their importance. Next, five encoded feature vectors are concatenated with the assessment information, and, finally, a softmax layer predicts the high-performer (H), moderate-performer (M), and at-risk (F) categories of students. We evaluate ASIST over three datasets from an Irish university, considering five evaluation metrics. ASIST achieves an area under the curve (AUC) score of 0.86 to 0.90 over the three datasets. It outperforms three baseline deep learning models and four traditional classification models. We also found that the attention mechanism has a slight impact on ASIST's performance. The ablation analysis reveals that weekly event count has the greatest impact on ASIST, whereas diurnal weekly interaction has the least impact. The early prediction using the first seven weeks of data achieves an AUC of 0.83 up to 0.89 over the three datasets. In yearly analysis, ASIST performs best over the 2018/19 dataset and worst over the 2020/21 dataset.