Magnetic resonance imaging-based prognostic model for subsequent distant metastasis in patients with ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence following breast-conserving surgery

Background: Ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) following breast-conserving surgery (BCS) has been considered a risk factor for distant metastasis (DM). Limited data are available regarding the subsequent outcomes after IBTR. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the clinical course after IBTR and develop a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based predictive model for subsequent DM. Methods: We retrospectively extracted quantitative features from MRI to construct a radiomics cohort, with all eligible patients undergoing preoperative MRI at time of primary tumor and IBTR between 2010 and 2018. Multivariate Cox analysis was performed to identify factors associated with DM. Three models were constructed using different sets of clinicopathological, qualitative, and quantitative MRI features and compared. Additionally, Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to assess the prognostic value of the optimal model. Results: Among the 183 patients who experienced IBTR, 47 who underwent MRI for both primary and recurrent tumors were enrolled. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the independent prognostic factors were human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status [hazard ratio (HR) =5.40] and background parenchymal enhancement (BPE) (HR =7.94) (all P values <0.01). Furthermore, four quantitative MRI features of recurrent tumors were selected through the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method. The combined model exhibited superior performance [concordance index (C-index) 0.77] compared to the clinicoradiological model (C-index 0.71; P=0.006) and radiomics model (C-index 0.70; and P=0.01). Furthermore, the combined model successfully categorized patients into low- and high-risk subgroups with distinct prognoses (P<0.001). Conclusions: The clinicopathological and MRI features of IBTR were associated with secondary events following surgery. Additionally, the MRI-based combined model exhibited the highest predictive efficacy. These findings could be helpful in risk stratification and tailoring follow-up strategies in patients with IBTR.