Investigation of the time-dependent bearing capacities of concrete structures in different environments considering climate change

The escalating trend of emissions of greenhouse gases, including CO2, prompts significant modifications in climate variables, such as temperature and relative humidity (RH). For concrete civil infrastructures, the carbonation and chlorination corrosion processes are sensitive to changes in climate variables. The focus of this study is to evaluate the time-sensitive deterioration of concrete components in different corrosion environments with consideration of large uncertainties of climate change. Future projections for atmospheric CO2, temperature, and RH until the end of the twenty first century are examined. By implementing an aging corrosion model that incorporates climate change, the study observes that under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario, the average carbonation depth for the RC structures in the general atmospheric environment increases by 58.7%. Furthermore, the chlorination corrosion rate in marine environments nearly doubles that under aging conditions alone. By 2100, corrosion-affected RC beams in the SSP5-8.5 scenario will lose 9.5 and 29.2% of their flexural capacity, respectively. Moreover, under carbonation and chlorination environments, the beams will face an additional loss of 20.7 and 27.6% in shear capacity, respectively. In performing the above calculations, we have considered the uncertainty prediction of climate change and the uncertainty analysis of the influence of model parameters and material variability.