Assessment of climatic influences on net primary productivity along elevation gradients in temperate ecoregions

Elevation gradients significantly influence net primary productivity (NPP), but the relationship between elevation, climate variables, and vegetation productivity remains underexplored, particularly in diverse ecological zones. This study quantifies the impact of elevation and climatic variables on NPP in northern Pakistan, hypothesizing that elevation modulates NPP through its influence on temperature and precipitation patterns. Using remote sensing data (MODIS ERA5) and advanced ecological models like the Eddy Covariance-Light Use Efficiency (EC-LUE) model and the Thornthwaite Memorial Model (TMM), we analyzed Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) dynamics across various vegetation types and elevations from 2001 to 2023. Our findings show a mean annual NPP of 323.46 g C m-2 a-1, with an annual increase of 5.73 g C m-2 a-1. Significant elevation-dependent variations were observed, especially in mid-elevation zones (401 to 1600 meters), where NPP increased at a rate of 0.174 g C m-2 a-1 per meter (R-2 = 0.808, p < 0.01). In contrast, higher elevations (2800-5200 meters) exhibited a decline in NPP, decreasing by -0.171 g C m-2 a-1 per meter (R-2 = 0.905, p < 0.001). Temperature and precipitation were key drivers, with precipitation positively correlating with NPP across all vegetation types, particularly in Evergreen Needleleaf and Broadleaf Trees. The EC-LUE model's GPP estimates closely matched MODIS data (R-2 = 0.82), demonstrating the model's reliability. These findings highlight the critical role of elevation and climatic factors in vegetation productivity and underscore the need for targeted ecological management and conservation strategies. The insights from this research are vital for global climate adaptation policies and sustainable development goals, contributing to ecological resilience and carbon sequestration efforts worldwide.