The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change

被引：4

作者：

Ciceu, Albert ^{[1
]}

Balacenoiu, Flavius ^{[2
]}

de Groot, Maarten ^{[2
,3
]}

Chakraborty, Debojyoti ^{[1
]}

Avtzis, Dimitrios ^{[4
]}

Barta, Marek ^{[5
]}

Blaser, Simon ^{[6
]}

Bracalini, Matteo ^{[7
]}

Castagneyrol, Bastien ^{[8
]}

Chernova, Ulyana A. ^{[9
]}

Cotaj, Ejup ^{[10
]}

Csoka, Gyorgy ^{[11
]}

Dautbasic, Mirza ^{[12
]}

Glavendekic, Milka ^{[13
]}

Gninenko, Yuri I. ^{[9
]}

Hoch, Gernot ^{[1
]}

Hradil, Karel ^{[14
]}

Husemann, Martin ^{[15
]}

Meshkova, Valentyna ^{[16
,17
]}

Mujezinovic, Osman ^{[12
]}

Mutun, Serap ^{[18
]}

Panzavolta, Tiziana ^{[7
]}

Paulin, Marton ^{[11
]}

Riba-Flinch, Josep M. ^{[19
]}

Simov, Nikolay ^{[20
]}

Sotirovski, Kiril ^{[21
]}

Vasilciuc, Serghei ^{[22
]}

Zubrik, Milan ^{[23
]}

Schueler, Silvio ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Austrian Res Ctr Forests BFW, Vienna, Austria

[2] Natl Inst Res & Dev Forestry Marin Dracea, Bucharest, Romania

[3] Slovenian Forestry Inst, Ljubljana, Slovenia

[4] Hellen Agr Org Demeter, Forest Res Inst, Iraklion, Greece

[5] Slovak Acad Sci, Inst Forest Ecol, Slepcany, Slovakia

[6] Swiss Fed Inst Forest Snow & Landscape Res WSL, Forest Hlth & Biot Interact, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

[7] Univ Florence, DAGRI, Plant Pathol & Entomol, Florence, Italy

[8] Univ Bordeaux, INRAE, BIOGECO, Bordeaux, France

[9] Russian Res Inst Forestry & Forestry Mechanizat, Pushchino, Russia

[10] Agr Univ Tirana, Fac Agr & Environm, Tirana, Albania

[11] Univ Sopron, Forest Res Inst, Sopron, Hungary

[12] Univ Sarajevo, Fac Forestry, Sarajevo, Bosnia & Herceg

[13] Univ Belgrade, Fac Forestry, Dept Landscape Architecture & Hort, Belgrade, Serbia

[14] Cent Inst Supervising & Testing Agr, Plzen, Czech Republic

[15] Staatl Museum Naturkunde, Karlsruhe, Germany

[16] Ukrainian Res Inst Forestry & Forest Meliorat, Kharkov, Ukraine

[17] Czech Univ Life Sci, Prague, Czech Republic

[18] Bolu Abant Izzet Baysal Univ, Fac Sci & Arts, Dept Biol, Bolu Merkez, Turkiye

[19] Plant Pathologist & Consulting Arborist, Tossa De Mar, Spain

[20] Bulgarian Acad Sci, Natl Museum Nat Hist, Sofia, Bulgaria

[21] Ss Cyril & Methodius Univ Skopje, Hans Em Fac Forest Sci, Landscape Architecture & Environm Engn, Skopje, North Macedonia

[22] Forest Res & Management Inst, Voluntari, Romania

[23] Forest Res Inst Zvolen, Natl Forest Ctr, Zvolen, Slovakia

来源：

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT | 2024年 / 949卷

关键词：

Biological invasion; Invasive species; Species distribution model; Oak pest; Biodiversity impact; European oak forest; CORYTHUCHA-ARCUATA SAY; 1832 HEMIPTERA TINGIDAE; HETEROPTERA TINGIDAE; EQUILIBRIUM; RESPONSES; DECLINE; RECORDS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174950

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

In recent years, the oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata, , has emerged as a significant threat to European oak forests. This species, native to North America, has in the last two decades rapidly extended its range in Europe, raising concerns about its potential impact on the continent's invaluable oak populations. To address this growing concern, we conducted an extensive study to assess the distribution, colonization patterns, and potential ecological niche of the oak lace bug in Europe. We gathered 1792 unique presence coordinates from 21 Eurasian countries, utilizing diverse sources such as research observations, citizen science initiatives, GBIF database, and social media reports. To delineate the realized niche and future distribution, we employed an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) framework. Two future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were considered across three-time intervals (2021-2040, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) to project and evaluate the species' potential distribution in the future. Our analysis revealed that significant hotspots rich in host species occurrence for this invasive insect remain uninvaded so far, even within its suitable habitat. Furthermore, the native ranges of Turkey oak ( Quercus cerris L.) and Hungarian oak ( Quercus frainetto L.) species offer entirely suitable environments for the oak lace bug. In contrast, the pedunculate oak and sessile oak distribution ranges currently show only 40 % and 50 % suitability for colonization, respectively. However, our predictive models indicate a significant transformation in the habitat suitability of the oak lace bug, with suitability for these two oak species increasing by up to 90 %. This shift underlines an evolving landscape where the oak lace bug may exploit more of its available habitats than initially expected. It emphasises the pressing need for proactive measures to manage and stop its expanding presence, which may lead to a harmful impact on the oak population across the European landscape.

引用

页数：12

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