A novel uncertainty assessment protocol for integrated ecosystem services-life cycle assessments: A comparative case of nature-based solutions

被引:9
作者
Alshehri, Khaled [1 ,2 ]
Chen, I-Chun [3 ]
Rugani, Benedetto [4 ,5 ]
Sapsford, Devin
Harbottle, Michael [1 ]
Cleall, Peter [1 ]
机构
[1] Cardiff Univ, Sch Engn, Cardiff CF24 3AA, Wales
[2] Univ Bisha, Coll Engn, Dept Civil Engn, POB 001, Bisha 61922, Saudi Arabia
[3] Chinese Culture Univ, Dept Land Resources, Taipei 11114, Taiwan
[4] Natl Res Council Italy CNR, Res Inst Terr Ecosyst IRET, Via G Marconi 2, I-05010 Porano, Italy
[5] Natl Biodivers Future Ctr NBFC, Piazza Marina 61, I-90133 Palermo, Italy
关键词
Life Cycle Assessment; Ecosystem services; Nature-based solution; Global sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty assessment; sensitivity analysis; GLOBAL SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS; ENVIRONMENTAL-MODELS; FRAMEWORK; INDEXES; DESIGN; OUTPUT; LCA;
D O I
10.1016/j.spc.2024.04.026
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Integrating ecosystem services and life cycle assessment is gaining increasing attention for the analysis of environmental costs and benefits associated with human activities covering multiple geographical scales and life cycle stages. Such integration is particularly relevant for evaluating the sustainability of nature-based solutions. However, merging these methods introduces additional uncertainties. This paper introduces a novel protocol to assess uncertainties in combined ecosystem services-life cycle assessment, focusing on ecosystem services accounting, life cycle inventory of foreground systems, and life cycle impact assessment characterisation factors. Applied to a nature-based solution case study compared to no-action and energy-intensive scenarios, the uncertainties were analysed using multi-method global sensitivity analysis. The robustness of the analysis results was assessed through convergence plots and statistical tests. Findings reveal significant uncertainties, especially in life cycle impact assessment characterisation factors, with the extent varying by impact category. Uncertainties in foreground life cycle inventory, particularly in land use of nature-based solutions scenario, are also notable. Compared to these, uncertainties associated with indicators of impact on ecosystem services (uncertainty arising from input variability in ecosystem services accounting) are relatively lower. This study underscores the critical role of uncertainty assessment in enhancing the reliability of integrated assessments for nature-based solutions, providing a framework to identify and quantify key uncertainties, thereby supporting more informed decisionmaking.
引用
收藏
页码:499 / 515
页数:17
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