Ecological Zoning Management Strategies in China: A Perspective of Ecosystem Services Supply and Demand

Ecological zoning management aims to ensure ecological functions and improve environmental quality, serving as an essential means to optimize the development and protection of territorial space. However, comprehensive research on ecological zoning management that combines human needs with natural resources is still relatively scarce. In this study, we selected water yield (WY), food provision (FP), and carbon sequestration (CS) as the critical ecosystem services (ES) in China. An InVEST model, ecosystem services supply-demand index (ESI), random forest (RF), and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) were used to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of ES supply and demand, and the four-quadrant model was used to analyze the spatial matching patterns. The results showed that: (1) from 2005 to 2020, the supply and demand of WY, FP, and CS increased. Among them, WY, FP, and CS supply increased by 16.06%, 34%, and 22.53%, respectively, while demand increased by 5.63%, 12.4%, and 83.02%, respectively; (2) the supply of WY and CS follow a "high in the southeast and low in the northwest" pattern, while all of the demands exhibit a "high in the east and low in the west" pattern; and (3) the average ecosystem service supply-demand index (ESI) values for WY, FP, and CS in China are 0.45, 0.12, and -0.24, respectively, showing an overall upward trend. The study identified three dominant functional zones for WY, FP, and CS, and four classification management zones, including protection zones, conservation zones, improvement zones, and reconstruction zones. These research findings provide a scientific basis for future territorial space planning in China and the application of ecosystem service supply and demand in sustainable development.