Trade-offs and synergistic relationships on soil-related ecosystem services in Central Asia under land use and land cover change

Due to climate change and human activities, land desertification, a major environmental issue in arid regions, has exerted an impact on ecosystem services (ES). However, previous ES assessments in arid regions lacked the integrated assessment and trade-off analysis of soil-related ecosystem services (S-ES). To address this, we developed a S-ES-Bayesian network (S-ES-BN) model to analyze the trade-offs and synergies between the complex relationships between S-ES and their multiple influences in Central Asia (CA). The results showed that (1) there is a large spatial and temporal heterogeneity in S-ES, with the most significant changes in water yield service (WY, -30%) and soil conservation service (SC, -26%) in the past 30 years (1990-2020); (2) land use and land cover change (LUCC) area shifts can have a gaining or weakening effect on the S-ES. Among them, water to wetland had the most obvious gain effect on SC (+5.1 t<middle dot>km2<middle dot>yr-1) and water to forestland had the most pronounced effect on carbon fixation service (CF, +251.22 t); and (3) based on the S-ES-BN, an optimal configuration of S-ES in CA demonstrated that the intensification of a future "warming and wetting" scenario in CA might lead to significant decreases in WY (-37%) and sand fixation (-7%). In addition, the clarification of the land allocation structure (cropland, forestland, and grassland) in LUCC will enhance the spatial demand for CF.