Key indicators of caprock sealing assessment with consideration of faults in potential CO2 geological storage sites in Subei Basin, China

Good caprock sealing is crucial for ensuring the long-term safety and security of carbon dioxide (CO2) geological storage. However, concealed faults within caprocks and reservoirs can impact the transport and accumulation of CO2 plumes. Due to the uncertainties associated with the geometric structure, physical properties, and combined relationships among reservoir, caprock and fault, accurately evaluating caprock sealing is challenging. To address the challenge of identifying key indicators for caprock sealing considering faults, this study focuses on the one potential CO2 geological storage field in the Subei Basin, China. First, this study establishes a hydraulicmechanical (HM) coupled finite element model considering a combination of caprock, reservoir and fault. Then, 22 research indicators, including fault offset, fault dip, caprock thickness, burial depth, permeability and mechanical properties, are analysed to evaluate their influence on caprock sealing via the tornado analysis and response surface methods. Finally, key indicators are determined based on evaluation criteria, such as pore pressure increment (Delta PP) and Coulomb failure stress (CFS), in the fault plane. The research results indicate that fault dip, fault offset, fault permeability, burial depth, and reservoir permeability are key indicators. The caprock thickness, caprock permeability, and caprock Young's modulus significantly influence the caprock sealing capacity. The Delta PP and CFS increase with increasing fault dip and offset. When the fault dip exceeds 45 degrees, the Delta PP and CFS reach maximum values at the interface between the reservoir and caprock. Fault permeability has a greater impact than reservoir permeability and caprock permeability. The research results may provide guidance for the evaluation of caprock sealing capacity for CO2 geological storage.