Machine learning-based risk prediction of acute kidney disease and hospital mortality in older patients

Introduction Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a prevalent complication in older people, elevating the risks of acute kidney disease (AKD) and mortality. AKD reflects the adverse events developing after AKI. We aimed to develop and validate machine learning models for predicting the occurrence of AKD, AKI and mortality in older patients.Methods We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of older patients (aged 65 years and above). To explore the trajectory of kidney dysfunction, patients were categorized into four groups: no kidney disease, AKI recovery, AKD without AKI, or AKD with AKI. We developed eight machine learning models to predict AKD, AKI, and mortality. The best-performing model was identified based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and interpreted using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method.Results A total of 22,005 patients were finally included in our study. Among them, 4,434 patients (20.15%) developed AKD, 4,000 (18.18%) occurred AKI, and 866 (3.94%) patients deceased. Light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) outperformed in predicting AKD, AKI, and mortality, and the final lite models with 15 features had AUC values of 0.760, 0.767, and 0.927, respectively. The SHAP method revealed that AKI stage, albumin, lactate dehydrogenase, aspirin and coronary heart disease were the top 5 predictors of AKD. An online prediction website for AKD and mortality was developed based on the final models.Discussion The LGBM models provide a valuable tool for early prediction of AKD, AKI, and mortality in older patients, facilitating timely interventions. This study highlights the potential of machine learning in improving older adult care, with the developed online tool offering practical utility for healthcare professionals. Further research should aim at external validation and integration of these models into clinical practice.