Conclusions Regarding the Role of Expectations in Placebo Analgesia Studies May Depend on How We Investigate It: A Meta-Analysis, Systematic Review, and Proposal for Methodological Discussions

Objective Expectations are highlighted as a key component in placebo effects. However, there are different approaches to whether and how placebo studies should account for expectations, and the direct contribution has yet to be estimated in meta-analyses. Using different methodological approaches, this meta-analysis and systematic review examines the extent to which expectations contribute to pain in placebo studies. Methods The databases PubMed, PsycINFO, Embase, and Web of Science were searched for placebo analgesia mechanism studies with numerical measures of both expectations and pain. Thirty-one studies, comprising 34 independent study populations (1566 subjects: patients and healthy participants) were included. Two meta-analyses were conducted: meta-analysis 1, using study-level data, estimated the effect of expectation interventions without taking measures of expectations into account (expectations assumed); and meta-analysis 2, using individual-level data, estimated the direct impact of participants' expectations on pain (expectations assessed). Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool. Results Meta-analysis 1 showed a moderate effect of expectation interventions over no expectation intervention on pain intensity (Hedges g = 0.45, I2 = 54.19). Based on 10 studies providing individual-level data, meta-analysis 2 showed that expectations predicted pain intensity in placebo and control groups (b = 0.36, SE = 0.05), although inconsistently across study methodologies. Conclusions Participants' expectations contributed moderately to pain in placebo analgesia studies. However, this may largely be influenced by how we measure expectations and how their contribution is conceptualized and analyzed-both within and across studies.