Strategic foresight: Scenario planning for business development of the Indonesian Orchid Association (IOA), West Java']Java, Indonesia

Agricultural businesses are often faced with uncertainty about the future, which can be both an opportunity and a threat to business development. This challenge is also faced by the Indonesian Orchid Association (IOA) West Java, Indonesia, which faces volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous environmental conditions that are influenced by various factors such as political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental. This study aims to identify factors that influence business and formulate a business development strategy at the IOA West Java, based on strategic foresight. Data collection was carried out using interview techniques and a literature study. Respondents were selected using purposive sampling by considering their working experience and intervention in the development of the orchid business in West Java. It consists of eighteen business actors in IOA West Java, two employees of the Department of Food Crops and Horticulture West Java, and one researcher of the National Research and Innovation Agency. The results showed that the driving factors that most influence businesses are the role of IOA West Java and the application of tissue culture technology because it can support orchid production and increase competitiveness. Strategic foresight for the next 5 years is focused on increasing farmer competence, applying tissue culture technology, and building market certainty, for the next 10 years, it is focused on meeting domestic demand for orchids by at least 50%, and for the next 15 years, it is focused on business continuity and increasing competitiveness. In a wider context in Indonesia, as well as in other developing countries, strategic foresight can be applied to anticipate uncertainty and develop agricultural businesses gradually, both in terms of production, marketing, and the sustainability of the business and the commodities it cultivates.