Construction and comprehensive evaluation of an index system for climate-smart agricultural development in China

Climate change and extreme weather threaten food security and farmers' livelihoods in several regions, and are increasingly affecting production. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) approaches, which attempt to strike a balance between food security, climate change resilience, and agricultural carbon emissions, have achieved significant results in many parts of the world but are still in urgent need of replication in China. In this study, we developed a protector-victim-perpetrator (PVP) analytical framework to analyse the complex links between climate change and agricultural production for the first time and constructed the first climate-smart agriculture development index (CSADI) in China through a modified GPCA-EWM methodology. The evaluation results showed that the CSA development level in most provinces and regions in China continuously improved from 2010 to 2020 but that the overall level was still low, with only four provinces and regions reaching a highly distinct level. The development level of climate-smart agriculture in China was constrained by the insufficient adaptation of agriculture to climate change, the overreliance of most regions on the innate advantages brought about by resource endowment, and the lack of acquired management and protection. Food security was often negatively correlated with agricultural carbon emissions, but the potential for reducing carbon emissions was quite limited, with ecological degradation and livestock overload in Tibet being of particular concern. In summary, mitigating agricultural carbon emissions by improving adaptability, drawing a bottom line for natural resource protection, popularising climate-smart agricultural technologies, and cross-regional integrated ecological management will help enhance the development of climate-smart agriculture in China.