Expanding range of the invasive shrub Amorpha fruticosa under changing climate

Invasive alien plant species pose a significant global threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services, with climate playing a crucial role in their successful establishment beyond native and recognized non-native ranges. Native to North America, A. fruticosa is recognized for its invasive nature, negatively impacting local species composition in threatened ecosystems. Here, we focused on evaluating the factors driving the rapid expansion of the invasive alien species Amorpha fruticosa L. across Europe using climate envelope modeling and predicting its future climatic suitability under range of climate change scenarios. Utilizing data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, we used the MaxEnt algorithm and 19 bioclimatic variables to model A. fruticosa's climatic suitability. The SDM, addressing uncertainty through four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), revealed a robust relationship between A. fruticosa and bioclimatic parameters, leading to observable range shifts in response to climate change. Climatic suitability was found to be minimal below -10 degrees C, increasing above 0 degrees C. Precipitation of the driest quarter was identified as a significant predictor, with low climatic suitability below 70 mm. Projected climatic niche expansion for the period 2041-2060 ranged from 75.9% (SSP126) to 115.5% of the current climatically suitable area (SSP485). For 2061-2080, the expansion varied from 78.6 to 150.5%, respectively. The study identified an eastward and northward expansion of climatic suitability across Europe. While SDMs proved invaluable in discerning potential risks during the early stages of invasion, the study emphasizes the need for more data to understand A. fruticosa's interactions with local species communities, fostering data-driven decision-making.