A comprehensive conceptual framework for signaling in-lake CO2 through dissolved organic matter

Organic carbon (C) and CO2 pools are closely interactive in aquatic environments. While there are strong indications linking freshwater CO2 to dissolved organic matter (DOM), the specific mechanisms underlying their common pathways remain unclear. Here, we present an extensive investigation from 20 subtropical lakes in China, establishing a comprehensive conceptual framework for identifying CO2 drivers and retrieving CO2 magnitude through co-trajectories of DOM evolution. Based on this framework, we show that lake CO2 during wet period is constrained by a combination of biogeochemical processes, while photo-mineralization of activated aromatic compounds fuels CO2 during dry period. We clearly determine that biological degradation of DOM governs temporal variations in CO2 rather than terrestrial C inputs within the subtropical lakes. Specifically, our results identify a shared route for the uptake of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic compounds and CO2 by lakes. Using machine learning, in-lake CO2 levels are well modelled through DOM signaling regardless of varying CO2 mechanisms. This study unravels the mechanistic underpinnings of causal links between lake CO2 and DOM, with important implications for understanding obscure aquatic CO2 drivers amidst the ongoing impacts of global climate change.