Social mobility and CCT programs: The Bolsa Familia program in Brazil

We investigate long-term outcomes related to social mobility and their determinants for low-income Brazilian households. More precisely, the first cohorts of beneficiaries of the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program Bolsa Familia (BFP); children aged between 7 and 16 in 2005, who are tracked for over a decade, until 2019. We use individual-level administrative data to analyze our two indicators of social mobility: (i) future emancipation from federal government social programs, and (ii) access to the formal labor market. We observe that formerly vulnerable children, beneficiaries of the CCT, find themselves in better socioeconomic conditions in adulthood. While 64 % of them, aged between 21 and 30 years in 2019, were no longer beneficiaries of federal government social programs, 45 % accessed the formal labor market at least once between 2015 and 2019. We also compare the characteristics of the formal employment they access with those of non-BFP beneficiaries during the same period. They have worse employment conditions, although better than informal positions typical of their parents. Furthermore, we investigate the association between local sociodemographic characteristics and individual social mobility. We find significant territorial heterogeneity associated with differences in better health and education infrastructures, and local economic activity.