Cloudy with a chance of survival: Simulating the effects of climate, habitat, and management on the population viability of an at-risk lizard species

The spot-tailed earless lizards (STEL) are small, phrynosomatid lizards in the Holbrookia genus. Historically, these were considered two subspecies, the Plateau (Holbrookia lacerata lacerata) and Tamaulipan STEL (Holbrookia lacerata subcaudalis); however, each are now recognized as a distinct species (i.e., H. lacerata (plateau STEL) and H. subcaudalis (Tamaulipan STEL)). Recently, the plateau STEL was considered but not awarded federal protection under the Endangered Species Act by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; however, much uncertainty remains about the status of the Tamaulipan STEL and a conclusive policy decision has not been made. In this study, we developed a hybrid theoretic-empirical demographic model and conducted a population viability analysis (PVA) of the Tamaulipan STEL (H. subcaudalis). We evaluated the role of multiple demographic, environmental, and anthropogenic parameters and assessed populationlevel effects and extinction risks via sensitivity experiments. The baseline simulation demonstrated that Tamaulipan STEL have a relatively low probability of extinction under best case scenario conditions; however, results of elasticity analysis of the baseline simulation and sensitivity analysis of demographic parameters demonstrated that increases in juvenile mortality had the greatest effect on population growth rate and extinction risk. Simulations of anthropogenic impacts showed that small increases in habitat loss (e.g., 2 %) had drastic negative effects on population size and persistence. Results from this study demonstrate the need for conservation and management actions aimed at protecting and increasing populations of young individuals (i. e., decreasing juvenile mortality) and promoting the conservation of available and suitable habitat for STEL throughout their range. These results must be considered in future conservation initiatives focused on this species to achieve successful conservation outcomes.