Human activity drives establishment, but not invasion, of non-native plants on islands

Island ecosystems are particularly susceptible to the impacts of invasive species. Many rare and endangered species that are endemic to islands are negatively affected by invasions. Past studies have shown that the establishment of non-native species on islands is related to native plant richness, habitat heterogeneity, island age, human activity, and climate. However, it is unclear whether the factors promoting establishment (i.e. the formation of self-sustaining populations) also promote subsequent invasion (i.e. spread and negative impacts). Using data from 4308 non-native plant species across 46 islands and archipelagos globally, we examined which biogeographic characteristics influence established and invasive plant richness using generalized linear models nested within piecewise structural equation models. Our results indicate that anthropogenic land use (i.e. human modification) is strongly associated with establishment but not invasion, that climate (maximum monthly temperature) is strongly associated with invasion but not establishment, and that habitat heterogeneity (represented by maximum elevation and island area) is strongly associated with both establishment and invasion. Island isolation explains native plant richness well, but is not associated with established and invasive plant richness, likely due to anthropogenic introductions. We conclude that anthropogenic land use on islands is likely to be a proxy for the number of introductions (i.e. propagule pressure), which is more important for establishment than invasion. Conversely, islands with more diverse habitats and favorable (warm) climate conditions are likely to contain more available niche space (i.e. 'vacant niches') which create opportunities for both establishment and invasion. By evaluating multiple stages of the invasion process, we differentiate between the biogeographic characteristics that influence plant establishment (which does not necessarily lead to ecological impacts) versus those that influence subsequent plant invasion (which does lead to negative impacts).