The spatio-temporal variations of cultivated land compensation efficiency and its influencing factors in mainland China

Cultivated land, for which compensation is a practical approach to safeguarding, is a strategic and scarce resource. Evaluating the cultivated land compensation efficiency and identifying its influencing factors are of great significance for monitoring the effect of such compensation and improving the associated policy. A new multi-dimensional framework for estimating the cultivated land compensation efficiency was proposed. This framework not only emphasized the externality of cultivated land but also incorporated its ecological value. Cultivated land compensation efficiency in mainland China from 2000 to 2021 was estimated using this framework and the global Super-SBM model. The panel Tobit model was also adopted to analyze the factors influencing cultivated land compensation efficiency. The results show that (1) Over the past 22 years, the cultivated land compensation efficiency in mainland China initially declined but subsequently exhibited an upward trend, maintaining an average value of 0.724. (2) On a spatial scale, the cultivated land compensation efficiency exhibited pronounced regional pattern, with higher levels observed in the northeastern and southwestern regions of mainland China and lower levels in the eastern region. The cultivated land compensation efficiency in different provinces has distinctive patterns as well. Generally, the cultivated land compensation efficiency is relatively stable in most provinces, though few illustrate an uptrend. (3) Both the ratio of the population with tertiary education and above to the total population and the ratio of primary sector production to GDP affect cultivated land compensation efficiency positively, with the former being more significant. Conversely, GDP per capita, agricultural water consumption, the area affected by disasters, and the ratio of local expenditure on science, technology and education to total fiscal expenditure affect cultivated land compensation efficiency negatively. Therefore, a set of recommendations has been put forward, encompassing the optimization of provincial inputs and outputs, the reinforcement of inter-provincial coordination and collaboration, and the expansion of the talent pool of funds.