Evaluation of Subseasonal Forecast Skill for Northern Hemisphere Winter Snow Cover

被引:0
作者
Li, Wenkai [1 ]
Song, Jinmei [1 ]
机构
[1] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteorol, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm C, Nanjing, Peoples R China
基金
国家重点研发计划;
关键词
Hydrometeorology; Snow cover; Forecast verification/skill; fi cation/skill; Numerical weather prediction/forecasting; Subseasonal variability; TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY; SURFACE AIR-TEMPERATURE; TIBETAN PLATEAU; MODEL; PREDICTION; RESOLUTION; WEATHER; SCALE; TELECONNECTIONS; PRECIPITATION;
D O I
10.1175/JHM-D-23-0190.1
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Accurate subseasonal forecasts for snow cover have significant fi cant socioeconomic value. This paper evaluates subseasonal forecasts for winter snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere as predicted by three numerical models: the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A), the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) model, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. While these models can generally simulate the spatial distribution of winter snow cover climatology and subseasonal variability, they tend to underestimate both the climatology and the intensity of subseasonal variability. Compared to persistence forecasts, these models demonstrate skill in subseasonal snow cover forecasting. Notably, the ECMWF model outperforms the MPAS and CMA models. The sensitivity of the surface air temperature subseasonal forecast skill to the predicted snow cover was also investigated using the MPAS. The results show that for forecasts with lead times of 1-2 weeks, the predicted snow cover contributes to the temperature forecasting skill. However, for forecasts with lead times of 3-4 weeks, the predicted snow cover does not enhance the temperature forecasting skill. Furthermore, part of the errors in temperature forecasts can be attributed to inaccuracies in snow cover forecasts with lead times of 2 weeks or more. These fi ndings suggest that refining fi ning snow cover parameterization schemes and effectively exploiting predictability from snow cover can enhance the skill of subseasonal atmospheric forecasts.
引用
收藏
页码:1371 / 1388
页数:18
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