Enhancing metastatic colorectal cancer prediction through advanced feature selection and machine learning techniques

Background and aims: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most prevalent cancer globally, posing a significant challenge due to its high rate of metastasis. Approximately 20% of patients with CRC present with distant metastases at diagnosis, and over 50% develop metastases within five years. Accurate prediction of metastasis is crucial for improving survival outcomes in patients with CRC. Methods: This study introduces an innovative cost-sensitive fast correlation-based filter (CS-FCBF) algorithm for feature selection, integrated with machine learning techniques to predict metastatic CRC. The CS-FCBF algorithm effectively reduced the number of genomic features from 184 to 9 critical genes: CXCL9, C2CD4B, RGCC, GFI1, BEX2, CXCL3, FOXQ1, PBK, and PLAG1. The methodology combined in vitro, in vivo, and analysis of publicly available single-cell RNA-seq datasets to validate the findings. Results: The application of the CS-FCBF algorithm led to a significant improvement in prediction model performance, with an average 21.16% increase in the area under the precision-recall curve. The nine identified genes hold potential as diagnostic biomarkers and therapeutic targets for metastatic CRC. Conclusions: This study highlights the critical role of advanced feature selection methods, combined with machine learning, in addressing the challenge of class imbalance in medical diagnosis, particularly for CRC. Early detection of metastasis is vital, and the identified genes underscore their importance in the metastatic process of CRC. The methodology applied here offers valuable insights and paves the way for future research in other cancers or diseases that face similar diagnostic challenges.